Extreme energy makeover
With the world’s population expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, how will we cope with the energy
demand? Paul Michael Grant presents the SuperGrid concept
NOAA/Science Photo Library
According to a report by the US Department of Energy
(DOE), world energy consumption is expected to grow
from its present level of about 120 EWh (120 × 1018
watthours) per annum to well over 180 EWh by 2025, a rise
of more than 50%. Moreover, many demographers
predict that the world’s population will approach 10 billion by mid-century, with global industrialization rates
far outpacing those of the US. As the entire planet aspires to reach a Western standard of living, the DOE
predicts that the current energy consumption rate,
63EWh per year in the industrialized nations and
55EWh in emerging countries, will evolve towards
80 EWh and 97 EWh, respectively.
How to supply and configure the energy economy and
infrastructure for such a world is perhaps the principal
long-term challenge facing civilization in the 21st century. A major component of the challenge will be attaining this energy goal in the most environmentally benign
and least eco-invasive manner possible. To paraphrase
the titles of several popular reality-TV programmes of
recent years, an “extreme makeover” will be required.
But whereas these entertainment productions addressed radically changing the physical appearance of
people and houses, this article will consider what may
be necessary to transform the world energy culture and
economy to accommodate the challenge – in other
words, how to effect an “extreme energy makeover”.
A principal uncertainty in this social equation is how
much further the Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves
can be exploited. The link between the observed increase in global temperature and concomitant increase
in carbon-dioxide emissions (currently 6000 million
tonnes of carbon emitted per year and expected to
reach 10 000 by 2025) remains controversial, but all
agree that it is physically plausible. The coming decades
are likely to see an internationally agreed upon “no
regrets” policy adopted that severely restricts the use
of fossil fuels for both transportation and the production of thermal and electrical energy. It would be most
wise for humanity not to oxidize every remaining atom
Paul Michael Grant
is head of W2AGZ
technologies, a
private energy-consultancy company
based in San Jose,
California, e-mail
w2agz@w2agz.com
